10/24 update below. This post was originally published on October 23
Bitcoin BTC and other major cryptocurrencies including ethereum and XRP XRP have suddenly rocketed as BlackRock and JPMorgan quietly lay the groundwork for the next bitcoin price bull run.
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The bitcoin price has rocketed over $30,000 per bitcoin, adding 10% during the last week and boosting the price of etheruem, XRP and other major cryptocurrencies as the U.S. dollar teeters on the verge of "collapse".
Now, analysts with Wall Street giant Morgan Stanley MS have said the bitcoin and crypto winter, that's seen prices collapse since late 2021, could be finally over—as traders try to judge if a "huge shift" in the market is priced in.
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"Based on current data, signs indicate that crypto winter may be in the past and that crypto spring is likely on the horizon," wrote Denny Galindo, author of the Morgan Stanley Wealth Management report, pointing to the massive bitcoin price rally this year that's seen bitcoin almost double through 2023.
"A 50% increase in price from bitcoin’s low is typically a good sign that the trough has been achieved," Galindo wrote, noting that previous price troughs were about 83% off their respective highs. The bitcoin price had last year fallen almost 80% from its peak of nearly $70,000 per bitcoin.
10/24 update: Crypto prices have surged again, climbing to levels not seen since last year and fulfilling expectations that the month of October would bring a huge rally.
The bitcoin price topped $35,000, up around 12% since this time yesterday, before dropping back slightly as excitement among traders reached fever pitch that BlackRock and other Wall Street giants are about to storm into the market, bringing with them trillions of dollars in managed cash. The ethereum price has followed bitcoin higher, up almost 10%, while the rest of the top ten made some smaller ground.
The crypto market has been set alight over the last 24 hours by two bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) developments that bullish traders have taken for signs the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is poised to permit a long-awaited bitcoin spot ETF to begin trading.
BlackRock's closely-watched application for a spot bitcoin ETF, called the iShares Bitcoin Trust, has appeared on a list maintained by the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation, which Nasdaq says provides post-trade clearance, settlement, custody and information services with the ticker IBTC.
Meanwhile, a federal appeals court formalized a victory for crypto asset manager Grayscale in its bid to turn its flagship GBTC bitcoin fund into a fully-fledged bitcoin spot ETF. "The Grayscale team looks forward to continuing to work constructively with the SEC to convert GBTC to an ETF," a spokesperson for the company said in a statement seen by Bloomberg. "GBTC is operationally ready, and we intend to move as expeditiously as possible on behalf of our investors."
Looking ahead, Galindo wrote that usually the "bull-run period starts with the halving event and ends once the price of bitcoin hits its prior peak." The next bitcoin price halving, that will see the supply of new bitcoin coming onto the market cut by half, is scheduled for April next year.
"By intentionally limiting the supply of new bitcoin, the shortage caused by the halving can affect the price of bitcoin to potentially spur a bull run," Galindo wrote. "[There have been] three such runs on bitcoin since its inception, each lasting 12 to 18 months after the halving."
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Other bitcoin, ethereum, XRP and crypto market watchers have also pointed to bitcoin's looming halving and its price "momentum" as fueling this latest rally.
"Recent data on price and volume underscores bitcoin's strong momentum in contrast to the broader digital asset market," Matteo Greco, a research analyst at crypto investor Fineqia, wrote in an emailed note. Bitcoin's crypto market dominance—a measure of the bitcoin's weight in the market compared to other cryptocurrencies—has increased to its highest level in years this month.
The bitcoin price has been boosted this month by soaring expectations a long-awaited bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) could be approved by U.S. regulators.
"Over the past month, the growing investor confidence in the imminent approval of bitcoin spot ETFs has driven considerable momentum toward bitcoin," Greco said. "This, combined with the scheduled bitcoin halving in the latter part of April 2024—a historic milestone event for the bitcoin network—has prompted investors to favour bitcoin over other digital assets.